Water consumption reduction scenarios simulated in Florianópolis through awareness policies and rainwater harvesting

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.46421/sispred.v3.2965

Keywords:

water consumption, system dinamics, computer simulation

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Water scarcity is already observed in several parts of the world, which can compromise life on the planet. This work uses system dynamics (SD) as a tool to estimate water consumption in the city of Florianópolis, southern Brazil. Using historical population, economy and water consumption data, a DS model is proposed to predict water consumption up to 2050. Through the Stella computer programme, policies to reduce water consumption in Florianópolis were tested. The model predicts reductions in water consumption of 37% (through the use of rainwater) and 4% (through awareness campaigns) for the year 2050. The model proposed can be used as a tool to support decisions to control and reduce water consumption in large cities.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Diego Antônio Custódio, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)

Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Florianopolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil

Thayane Lodete Bilésimo, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Florianopolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil

Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Florianopolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil

Enedir Ghisi, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Florianopolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil

Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Florianopolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil

Maurício Uriona Maldonado , Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)

Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Florianopolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil

References

Ahmadi, M. H., Zarghami, M. (2019). Should water supply for megacities depend on outside resources? A Monte-Carlo system dynamics simulation for Shiraz, Iran. Sustainable Cities and Society

, 163-170

Bao, C., He, D. (2019). Scenario Modeling of Urbanization Development and Water Scarcity Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China. International Journal Environmental Research Public Health, 16 (20), 3834.

BRASIL. Ministério das Cidades. Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Saneamento. Diagnóstico dos Serviços de Água e Esgoto: 2007.

BRASIL. Ministério das Cidades. Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Saneamento. Diagnóstico dos Serviços de Água e Esgoto: 2017.

Custódio, D. A., Ghisi, E. (2019). Assessing the Potential for Potable Water Savings in the Residential Sector of a City: A Case Study of Joinville City. Water, 11 (10), 2074.

Dawadi, S., Ahmad, S. (2013). Evaluating the impact of demand-side management on water resources under changing climatic conditions and increasing population. Journal of Environmental Management, 15, 261-275.

Dias, T. F., Kalbusch, A., Henning, E. (2018). Factors influencing water consumption in buildings in southern Brazil. Journal of Cleaner Production, 184, 160-167.

Distefano, T., Kelly, S. (2017). Are we in deep water? Water scarcity and its limits to economic growth. Ecological Economics, 142, 130-147.

Domene, E., Sauri, D., Huelin, S., Boada, M., Marti, X., Garriga, N., Molina, J. Estudi Del Consum D’aigua Als Edificis De Laregió Metropolitana De Barcelona. Relatório Técnico, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2004. Disponível em: http://www.fundacioabertis.org/rcs_est/estudi_complet.pdf

EPE (2016). Balanço Energético Nacional. Disponível em: http://epe.gov.br/pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/Balanco-Energetico-Nacional-2016. (Acesso em 19 jun. 2019).

Forrester, J. W. (1991). System Dynamics and the Lessons of 35 Years. In: FORRESTER, Jay W.. The Systemic Basis of Policy Making in the 1990s. Cambridge: Kenyon B. de Greene, 5-32.

Ghisi, E. (2006). Potential for potable water savings by using rainwater in the residential sector of Brazil. Building and Environment, 41, 11, 1544-1550.

Ghisi, E., Oliveira, S. M. (2007). Potential for potable water savings by combining the use of rainwater and greywater in houses in southern Brazil. Building and Environment, 42, 4, 1731-1742.

Ghisi, E., Tavares, D. F., Rocha, V. L. (2009). Rainwater harvesting in petrol stations in Brasília: Potential for potable water savings and investment feasibility analysis. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 54, 79-85.

Hadadin, N., Qaqish, M., Akawwi, E., Bdour, A. (2010). Water shortage in Jordan - Sustainable solutions. Desalination, 250, 197-202.

Jones A. P., Homer, J. B., Murphy, D. L., Essien, J. D., Milstein, B., Sevilha D. A. (2006). Understanding Diabetes Population Dynamics Through Simulation Modeling and Experimentation. American Journal of Public Health. 96, 3, 488-494.

Katz, D., Grinstein, A., Kronrod, A., Nisan, U. (2016). Evaluating the effectiveness of a water conservation campaign: Combining experimental and field methods. Journal of Environmental Management, 180, 335-343.

Kim, J. Lee, D. Jung, N. (2006). Analysis Of Household Water Demand Patterns By Meters Recording. In: ANNUAL WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS ANALYSIS SYMPOSIUM, 8th, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA

Lyneis, J. M. (2000). System dynamics for market forecasting and structural analysis. System Dynamics. 16, 3-25.

Máñes, K. S., Husain, S., Ferse, S. C. A., Costa, M. M. (2012). Water scarcity in the Spermonde Archipelago, Sulawesi, Indonesia: Past, present and future. Environmental Science & Policy, 23, 78-84.

Matos, C., Teixeira, C. A., Duarte, A. A. L. S., Bentes, I. (2013). Domestic water uses: Characterization of daily cycles in the north region of Portugal. Science of The Total Environment, 1, 458-460.

Mereu, S., Susnik, J., Trabucco, A., Daccache, A., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, L., Renoldi, S., Virdis, A., Savic, D., Assimacopoulos, D. (2016). Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia. Science of The Total Environment, 1, 1028-1038.

Qi, C., Chang, N. (2011). System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts. Journal of Environmental Management, 92, 1628-1641.

Park, S., Sahleh, V., Jung, S. (2015). A system dynamics computer model to assess the effects of developing an alternate water source on the water supply systems management. Procedia Engineering, 119, 753-760.

Schleich, J., Hillenbrand, T. (2009). Determinants of residential water demand in Germany. Ecological Economics, 68, 6, 1756-1769.

Sterman, J.D. (2000) Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill, Boston.

Stewart, R. A., Willis, R. M., Panuwatwanich, K. S. O. (2013). Showering behavioural response to alarming visual display monitors: longitudinal mixed method study. Behaviour & Information Technology. 32. 695-711.

Tako, A. A., Robinson, S. (2012). The application of discrete event simulation and system dynamics in the logistics and supply chain context. Decision Support Systems, 52, 802-815.

Tianhong, L., Songnan, Y., Mingxin, T. (2019). Simulation and optimization of water supply and demand balance in Shenzhen: A system dynamics approach. Journal of Cleaner Production, 207, 882-893.

Tortajada, C., González-Gómez, F., Biswas, A. K., Buurman, J. (2019). Water demand management strategies for water-scarce cities: The case of Spain. Sustainable Cities and Society, 45, 649-656.

UNESCO (2019). Relatório mundial das Nações Unidas sobre o Desenvolvimento dos Recursos Hídricos. Disponível em: http://www.unesco.org/new/pt/brasilia/natural sciences/environment/wwdr/ (acesso em 18 jun. 2019).

Wei, T., Lou, I., Yang, Z., Li, Y. (2016). A system dynamics urban water management model for Macau, China. Journal of Environmental Sciences, 50, 117-126.

Wu, P., Tan, M. (2012). Challenges for sustainable urbanization: a case study of water shortage and water environment changes in Shandong, China. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 13, 919-927.

Published

15/10/2023

How to Cite

CUSTÓDIO, D. A.; LODETE BILÉSIMO, T.; GHISI, E.; URIONA MALDONADO , M. . Water consumption reduction scenarios simulated in Florianópolis through awareness policies and rainwater harvesting. In: SIMPÓSIO NACIONAL DE SISTEMAS PREDIAIS, 3., 2023. Anais [...]. Porto Alegre: ANTAC, 2023. p. 210–219. DOI: 10.46421/sispred.v3.2965. Disponível em: https://eventos.antac.org.br/index.php/sispred/article/view/2965. Acesso em: 15 may. 2024.