O uso de projeções climáticas para construção de arquivos TMY3

uma análise estatística

Abstract

To expanding the alternatives of weather files for carrying out computer simulations, this article aims to present a procedure for building TMY3 type files from climate projection data available on the Climatic Projections in Brazil website. The method is structured around a statistical treatment that allows comparing TMY3 files produced from climate projections with data from Climate Normals, with emphasis on the variables Average Temperature, Minimum Temperature, Maximum Temperature, Relative Humidity and Precipitation. The results indicate that the TMY3 files produced from climate projections showed the ability to assimilate the behaviour of climate data and properly represent them. However, there was a tendency to underestimate temperature and relative humidity data, and to overestimate precipitation data. It is concluded that the reference year TMY3 originated from the projection data (historical and future) was able to predict these periodic changes and the observed errors are not significant to the point of making its application unfeasible in the absence of another database. Finally, the statistical simplifications adopted in the procedure had a small impact on the final results and the continuity of the work must analyse the impact of the period considered to generate the historical TMY3 file.