ANÁLISE DE SENSIBILIDADE DE PARÂMETROS TERMOFÍSICOS DE HABITAÇÕES BRASILEIRAS SOB A INFLUÊNCIA DAS MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS

Abstract

This study focused on the thermal performance of Brazilian dwellings in view of climate change. The aim of this research was to analyze global sensitivity indexes of thermophysical parameters of dwellings in Belém and São Paulo, according to the effects of climate change. For this purpose, the thermal performance of a low-income housing was simulated in different environmental conditions, from progressions of weather files, obtained through the CCWorldWeatherGen tool, for the periods of the years 2020 (comprises 2011 to 2040), 2050 (comprises 2041 to 2070) and 2080 (comprises 2071 to 2100), according to the A2 emissions scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The Morris indexes proved that climate change, besides impacting the thermal performance of residential environments, influence the importance of the thermophysical parameters, especially in São Paulo climate. In Belém, the most important parameters over the simulated periods were the ventilation factor, and the transmittance and thermal capacity of the walls. In São Paulo, the solar orientation, the solar absorptance of the roof, and the ventilation factor were most important in the simulations until the period 2050, and in the period 2080, the ventilation factor became the most influential parameter. In general, it is concluded that buildings design must necessarily consider projections of climate change, for the built environment to be resilient in its performance.