Análise do índice de velocidade de vendas do mercado imobiliário de Fortaleza sob a ótica da previsão de demanda

Abstract

Demand forecasting is a key aspect of medium to long term investments, since such commitments are strongly dependent on how the present conditions will behave in the future. The objective of this paper is to study the sales velocity rate of the city of Fortaleza, Ceará, from the perspective of demand forecasting, more precisely by investigating the relationship between variables related to real estate public financing as well as the gross aggregated value of the construction national industry. Such analysis aligns with quantitative methods that aims at causality relationships among factors for forecasting demand. After subsequent data handling, the analysis was conducted by fitting trend lines with linear regression models that reveal with statistical significance correlation within dependent and independent variables. In conclusion, the analysis revealed time lags between the sales velocity rate and relevant economic data of the national real estate market, fact that can be employed on the development of forecasting models.